碳达峰国家达峰特征与启示

基于世界银行数据库1960～2020年数据,采用Mann-Kendall(MK)检验和Spearman's Rho(SR)检验,对全球219个国家及地区的CO2排放及社会经济数据进行趋势分析.结果表明:MK检验和SR检验得出一致结论,共有42个国家和1个经济体联盟实现碳达峰,46个国家处于碳达峰平台期.多数国家碳达峰时...

Peaking characteristics and enlightenment based on carbon peak countries

The paper is based on the World Bank World Development Indicators database from 1960 to 2020, and Mann-Kendall test and Spearman's Rho test are used to analyze trends in CO₂ emissions and socioeconomic data of 219 countries and regions around the world. The result shows: the conclusions of the MK test and the SR test are consistent that 42 countries and 1 economic alliance achieved carbon peak, while 46 countries are in the carbon peak plateau. Most peaking countries have the following characteristics: GDP per capita is between 2x10⁴ and 5x10⁴ dollars; tertiary industry accounts for more than 50%; fossil energy consumption still accounts for more than 60%; carbon emissions are in the downward phase of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, and economic development is decoupled from carbon emission. Learning from the experience of the peaking countries, China should further adjust energy structure, increase the proportion of renewable energy consumption, optimize the industrial structure, accelerate the construction of a new pattern of the national economy dominated by the service industry, formulate regionally differentiated carbon peak goals, and promote qualified regions to take the lead in reaching the peak.