密云水库及其流域营养物集成模拟的模型体系研究

近年来由于连年干旱,密云水库面临着严重的水质和水量问题.为实现密云水库及流域的营养物集成模拟和预测,研究开发了以流域非点源模型、水体生态动力学模型和河流模型为基础的,在GIS、RS技术支持下的密云水库水环境模拟预测集成模型.生态动力学模型是由WASP模型和EFDC模型耦合而成,流域非点源模型选用SWAT模型系统,该系统同时包括了污染物在河流中的迁移转化模拟.研究采用马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗法进行参数识别.结果表明,实测水质数据基本位于模拟数据分布众数曲线上下,并基本落入了水质变量模拟分布80%置信度的置信区间内,模拟结果与监测数据匹配较好.说明流域集成模型体系得到了有效识别并能满足实际应用.

Integrated Model of Nutrients for the Miyun Reservoir and Its Watershed

In recent years,the Miyun Reservoir faces severe problems of water quality and quantity due to continuous drought.In order to simulate and predict the eutrophic status of the Miyun Reservoir and its watershed,an integrated model was developed based on GIS and RS technology,which was composed of non-point source(NPS) simulation model,aquatic ecological-hydrodynamic model,and river water quality model.Ecological-hydrodynamic model was developed through coupling water quality analysis simulation program(WASP) with environmental fluid dynamics Code(EFDC).SWAT was selected as NPS simulation model,which could also perform water quality simulation in the river.Then the integrated model was calibrated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and verified using observed data.Results indicated that observed water quality data laid around the mode curves of simulation distribution,and which also dropped into the confidence interval on 80 percent credibility of water quality simulation distribution.In conclusion,the results show that the integrated model can meet the need of application.