基于SD模型的三峡库区快速城镇化地区耕地利用模拟研究

对引起耕地变化的驱动因素进行研究，有利于解决当下人口、经济和社会发展与耕地资源的矛盾。基于对耕地变化相关因素的线性分析，提出改进基于时间序列对耕地变化驱动力静态研究的模式，利用系统动力学模型从动态的耕地变化仿真模拟过程中对长寿区耕地变化趋势进行预测研究,为快速城镇化地区耕地资源的合理利用与保护提供借鉴。结果表明：（1）长寿区耕地面积25 a间共减少 9 535 hm2，在数量上总体呈现波动下降趋势；（2）长寿区耕地变化的主要驱动力与社会经济发展、人口与城市发展、农业结构调整与科技进步密切相关；（3）利用SD模型在不同情景设定下的模拟发现，区内城镇化率对耕地面积的影响＞GDP对耕地面积的影响＞人口增长对耕地面积的影响；（4）耕地利用变化在不同社会经济发展模式下的差异较大，而GDP和城镇化率的缓速增长发展模式最为理想，对区内耕地资源保护有一定的促进作用。由此可以得出，为减轻未来长寿区耕地保护工作压力，必须转变以牺牲耕地作为代价的经济发展模式，通过集约节约用地、积极开展农村建设用地复垦等工作来协调城镇化的快速发展与耕地保护之间的矛盾。 关键词： 耕地变化；驱动力；耕地非农化；系统动力学；城镇化；三峡库区

Simulation Study on Cultivated Land Utilization in Rapid Urbanization Area of Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on SD Model

Studying the driving factors that cause the change of cultivated land will help solve the current contradiction between population,economic and social development and cultivated land resources. We proposed to improve the static model of driving forces in cultivated land change based on time series,and predicted the change of cultivated land in Changshou District with the dynamic simulation using the system dynamics model. This article provides references for the rational utilization and protection of cultivated land resources in rapid urbanization. The results showed that: (1) the total area of cultivated land in Changshou District decreased by9535hm2 over the 25 years,showing an overall downward trend in fluctuation; (2) the main driving forces of cultivated land change were closely related to social and economic development, population and urban development,adjustment of agricultural structure and progress of science and technology; (3) by using SD model to simulate different scenarios,it was found that the rate of urbanization in Changshou district has the greatest impact on cultivated land area,followed by the impact of GDP on cultivated land area,while the impact of population growth on cultivated land area is the smallest; (4) the change of cultivated land varied greatly under different social and economic development modes,and the mode of rapid growth of GDP and urbanization rate is the most ideal mode of development,which will promote the protection of cultivated land resources in the region. In conclusion,in order to alleviate the pressure of cultivated land protection in the future,we must change the mode of economic development at the expense of cultivated land,coordinate the conflict between cultivated land protection and the rapid development of urbanization and cultivated land through intensive and economical use of land,actively carring out reclamation of rural construction land.