POLICIES FOR RESOLVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION ISSUES: ANTAGONISTIC OR RE-ENFORCING?

Unlike the past, anthropogenic activities have begun to have greaterand greater impact on the environment. Policy formulation is no longerconfined to just responding to an existing set of environmentalconditions, but involves taking into account how the decision mightaffect the original set of environmental conditions to which the originalpolicy was formulated as a response.We discuss how certain policies could be developed, using the resultsfrom two integrated scientific models which incorporate parametersreflecting two air issues: (1) climate change, and (2) stratospheric ozonedepletion. Model results suggest very clearly that these two air issuesare not scientifically independent from each other. Following asingle-issue policy would lead to inconsistencies and undesirableconsequences in other related issues. Thus, the policy decision processhas now become complex.One of the sources of this complexity is the uncertainty in the responseof the environmental system to certain policy decisions, complexityarising from the fact that the environmental system is highly nonlinearand evolving. Model results indicate that it is essential for the policyformulation process to be flexible enough to take into account thenonlinear evolutionary nature of the environmental system. A policymust reflect, and be tailored to, the dynamical history and present stateof the system, if it is to be effective in influencing the future evolution of the system.