A General Stochastic Model for the Prediction of Biodiversity Losses Based on Habitat Conversion

We present a model of species extinction rates that depends on the distribution of species and rates of habitat conversion. This model allows prediction of numbers of species lost as well as current extinction rates. We apply the model to plant species in the Neotropics. We examined distribution data for 51 angiosperm taxa, comprising 4258 species from Flora Neotropica monographs. Of these, 25.7% had been recorded as occurring in a single locality, with 12.8% and 9.5% being recorded from two or three localities respectively. Assuming that 18.7% of Neotropical forested area has been cleared since 1950, when 60,000 plant species existed, the model predicts that 3020 species will have been lost by 1992. At current deforestation rates, the entire Neotropics loses between 71 and 95 plant species per year. We also apply the model to individual Neotropical countries and find annual rates of within-country extinctions ranging from 0 per year in Belize to 63 per year in Ecuador. We suggest a means by which the model may be tested in the field.