广东省"十四五"时期机动车污染减排潜力研究

为研究广东省“十四五”时期机动车污染减排潜力,设置3种方案进行减排分析。结果表明,淘汰老旧机动车能较好地削减机动车NO_x排放量,而对挥发性有机物(VOCs)的净减排效果不佳。淘汰国Ⅱ及以下排放标准汽油车、国Ⅲ及以下排放标准柴油货车情况下,广东省各市NO_x削减比例均超过10%。汕尾市、湛江市、茂名市、云浮市、揭阳市、阳江市、潮州市、清远市、河源市和梅州市淘汰国Ⅱ及以下排放标准机动车、50%国Ⅲ排放标准柴油货车能达到NO_x减排10%以上的效果,而珠三角地区城市需全面淘汰国Ⅲ及以下排放标准柴油货车才能达到该减排效果。为遏制广东省O₃浓度上升势头并推动其进入下降通道,要加强“油、路、车”协同管控,珠三角地区应采取比粤东、粤西和粤北地区更有力的协同控制措施。

Analysis of motor vehicle emission reduction potential in Guangdong Province during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period

In order to study the emission reduction potential of motor vehicle in Guangdong Province during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period,three scenarios were set up for emission reduction analysis.Results showed that the elimination of old motor vehicles could better reduce motor vehicle NO_x emissions,but the net emission reduction effect on VOCs was insufficient.The reduction ratio of NO_x in all cities in Guangdong Province could exceed 10%in the case of the elimination of gasoline vehicles within or below NationalⅡemission standard and diesel trucks within or below NationalⅢemission standard.Ten cities,including Shanwei City,Zhanjiang City,Maoming City,Yunfu City,Jieyang City,Yangjiang City,Chaozhou City,Qingyuan City,Heyuan City and Meizhou City,could achieve the effect of NO_x emission reduction of more than 10%by eliminating motor vehicles within or below NationalⅡemission standard,and 50%of diesel trucks within NationalⅢemission standard,while cities in the Pearl River Delta region needed to further completely eliminate diesel trucks with NationalⅢemission standard to achieve the same effect.In order to curb the rising trend of ozone concentration in Guangdong Province and promote it into the declining channel,it was necessary to strengthen the collaborative control of“oil,road and vehicles”in the field of motor vehicle emission reduction.The Pearl River Delta region should adopt more powerful collaborative control measures than the eastern,western and northern regions of Guangdong Province.