基于SCS-CN与GIS耦合模型的闽三角城市群承灾空间淹没风险研究

以闽三角城市群为研究对象,创新水文SCS-CN算法与GIS耦合技术,计算出不同暴雨重现期(5 a,10 a,50 a一遇)下的淹没范围,构建闽三角城市群内涝淹没风险评估体系.通过地理探测器进一步探究淹没风险与社会生态系统空间分布规律,为闽三角城镇群的生态安全保障与可持续发展提供技术支撑.研究表明:闽三角城市群内涝淹没区...

Study on the Inundation Risk of Disaster Space in the Min Delta Urban Agglomeration based on SCS-CN and GIS Coupling Model

In order to ensure the security of cities, it is urgent to improve the preventing control capabilities of waterlogging disasters. Taking the Min Delta urban agglomeration as the research object, we analyzed the characteristics and occurrence rules of the heavy rain disaster in this area. The inundation range under different rainstorm return periods(once in 5 years, once in 10 years, and once in 50 years) was calculated based on the innovative technology of hydrological SCS-CN algorithm and GIS model. Besides, the risk assessment system for the inundated area in the Min Delta urban agglomeration was constructed. The inundation risk and the spatial distribution of social ecosystem were analyzed through geo-detectors, which provides a technical support for the preventing control of flood disasters. The results indicate that the inundation area of Min Delta urban agglomeration spatially presents a state of aggregation along the river channel to the sea inlet and coastline, and its risk gradually decreases from coast to inland. Moreover, Type Ⅰ, Type Ⅱ, and Type Ⅲ area inundation accounts for 10.2%, 14.6%, and 27.4% of the study area. The inundated areas of Xia, Zhang and Quan cities are 135.67 km², 304.10 km² and 572.09 km². The proportion of Type I risk areas is 84%, 78% and 62% respectively. The specific location of the high-frequency waterlogging section in Xiamen, Zhangzhou and Quanzhou were further determined. Based on the analysis of the spatial heterogeneity between 8 main socio-ecological factors and inundated areas, the waterlogging prevention and control zoning considering urban development was proposed at the regional level.