沈阳市2005—2012年水足迹与水资源承载力分析

为衡量城市人类活动对水资源的真实利用情况,以水足迹(water footprint, WF)理论为基础,计算了沈阳市2005—2012年水足迹和水资源承载力基础指标;对比分析了社会经济发展对水资源系统造成的压力以及水资源系统对社会经济发展的支撑能力;利用水足迹指标构建了耦合协调度评价指标体系;借鉴容量耦合模型对沈阳市水资源承载力的耦合度和耦合协调度进行了时序分析。结果表明:沈阳市2005—2012年水足迹整体呈波动下降态势,水足迹年平均值保持在约36.54×10 ⁸ m ³;农业虚拟水消费量是城市水足迹的主要组成部分,人口数量和饮食习惯差异是导致城镇居民虚拟水消费量较大的主要原因;从水资源承载力基础指标来看,沈阳市对水资源的开发利用处于不可持续状态,人口增长和经济发展已导致水资源供给乏力;从历年耦合度和耦合协调度计算结果来看,沈阳市水资源承载力系统处于拮抗状态。除2005年外,沈阳市“水资源-社会-经济”系统始终处于轻度失调状态。

Analysis of water footprint and water resources carrying capacity in Shenyang in 2005-2012

Based on the theory of water footprint, the water footprint and water resources carrying capacity were calculated to measure the real utilization of water resources in Shenyang for 2005-2012. The relationship between socioeconomic system and water resources system was contrasted and analyzed by the water footprint and water resources carrying capacity. On the basis of water footprint indicator, an evaluation index system of coupling coordinative degree was constructed, and the temporal difference of coupling degree and coupling coordinative degree in Shenyang analyzed by using the Capacitive Coupling Model. The results indicated that water footprint in Shenyang showed decreasing trend in 2005-2012. The annual average of water footprint was about 3.654×10 9 m 3. The virtual water consumption of agriculture was the key component of city water footprint. The difference in population and dietary habits was the main reason for increase of the virtual water consumption. In terms of the basic indexes of water resources carrying capacity, the utilization of water resources in Shenyang was unsustainable. The population growth and economic development had caused the water resources shortage. The coordination result of coupling degree and coupling coordinative degree showed that the water resources carrying capacity system was in the state of antagonism, and the system of "water resource, society and economy" was in the state of mild disorder during the last years except 2005.