中国地区黑碳气溶胶的气候效应模拟

RegCM模式对于中国区域气候要素模拟的准确性已得到本地化验证,但系统默认的数据源往往不具备本地化的特征,尤其是气溶胶排放清单设定的生物质源具有季节变化性,人为源为固定值,大大降低了人为源的气溶胶气候效应影响。采用多尺度排放清单模型(MEIC)计算的2013年黑碳气溶胶排放清单,设置不同试验情景,对比分析了人为黑碳气溶胶的气候效应。结果表明:黑碳气溶胶的加入使中国地区的辐射强迫、温度、降水以及黑碳气溶胶柱含量都产生明显变化,且有显著季节变化特征;随着季节变化,气候要素的增减效应范围不同,温度呈由南向北的增长趋势,降水量呈南增北减的趋势,黑碳气溶胶柱含量高值区集中出现在南方工业聚集区。

Study on black carbon aerosol simulation of climate effect in China

The accuracy of the RegCM model simulation has been verified for the regional climate elements in many studies in China. However, the default data sources of the system usually lack the localized characteristics, especially for the aerosol emission inventory. The biomass sources have seasonal variability, whereas the anthropogenic sources are fixed unchanged, which greatly neglect the aerosol climate effects of the anthropogenic sources. The climate effect of anthropogenic black carbon aerosol was compared and analyzed under different scenarios, applying the emission source inventory (calculated by MEIC model). The results showed that the addition of black carbon aerosol could significantly change the radiative forcing, temperature, rainfall and black carbon aerosol column contents in China, with obvious seasonal variation characteristics. With the variation of seasons, different climatic factors had different increase/decrease tendency: the temperature increased from south to north areas; the rainfall increased in south areas and decreased in north areas; and the black carbon aerosol column was centered on the southern industrial agglomeration areas.