Methodological considerations in forecasting Saudi Arabian economic growth

The author surveys a number of factors responsible for Saudi Arabian economic growth and concludes that, contrary to popular belief, the petroleum sectors have had more than just a short-run transitory stimulating impact on the domestic economy. It appears that changes in the level of exports (and resulting government expenditures) have a number of impacts on the non-oil sector of the economy which take some time for their full effect to be felt. Government expenditures have become somewhat independent of current oil exports, so the current oil glut and falling revenues for Saudi Arabia are not likely to be translated into slower non-oil income growth.