Developing interactive land use scenarios on the Loess Plateau in China,presenting risk analyses and economic impacts |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Department for the Management of Noncommunicable Diseases, Disability, Violence and Injury Prevention, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland;2. Division of Violence Prevention, CDC, Atlanta, Georgia;1. Pasteur Institute of Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam;2. Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark;3. Disease Elimination Program, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia;4. General Department of Preventive Medicine, Ministry of Health, Hanoi, Vietnam;5. National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam;6. School of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Hanoi University, Hanoi, Vietnam;7. Pasteur Institute of Nha Trang, Nha Trang, Vietnam;8. Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA;9. School of Physics, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia;1. Office on Smoking and Health, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, CDC, Atlanta, Georgia;2. DB Consulting Group, Contractor for Office on Smoking and Health, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, CDC, Atlanta, Georgia;1. Department of Food Engineering, University of Campinas – UNICAMP, 13083-862 Campinas, SP, Brazil;2. Chemical, Biological and Agricultural Pluridisciplinary Research Center (CPQBA), University of Campinas – UNICAMP, 13083-970 Campinas, SP, Brazil;1. Central European Institute of Technology (CEITEC) Brno University of Technology, Technická 3058/10, 616 00 Brno, Czech Republic;2. Central European Institute of Technology (CEITEC) Masaryk University, Kamenice 5, 625 00 Brno, Czech Republic;3. Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Kotlářská 2, 611 37 Brno, Czech Republic;4. Faculty of Chemistry - The Institute of Chemistry and Technology of Environmental Protection, Brno University of Technology, Purkyňova 118, 612 00 Brno, Czech Republic |
| |
| Abstract: | This study aimed to present a risk analysis of the effects of different land use scenarios on reducing soil and water losses, using a physically based hydrological and soil erosion model. We quantified the effect of various land use scenarios on the expected rate of discharge and sediment loss during a single rain event in a small agricultural watershed on the Loess Plateau in China, using the geometric mean and stochastic distributions of measured field saturated conductivity (Ks) values. Land use scenarios were based upon physical, economic and agricultural interests, and effects on farmers’ incomes were evaluated using empirically derived equations. A physically based hydrological and soil erosion model was used to quantify the effects of land use on discharge and soil loss. Using geometric mean values of Ks as the model input resulted in higher values for runoff coefficients and total soil loss compared with the use of stochastic Ks values. The use of stochastic Ks-distributions resulted in a range of model outcomes reflecting the effect of spatial heterogeneity on simulated discharge and soil loss. The conservation-driven scenario was most effective in reducing water and sediment losses by runoff and erosion, followed by the soil-driven scenario and the agriculture-driven land use scenario. Only the agriculture-driven scenario resulted in a small increase in household income, while a serious loss of income is predicted for the other scenarios. The use of variability of parameters and a Monte Carlo analyses allows statistical analyses and comparison of computed results for alternative land use scenarios, and leads to a more balanced judgement. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
