基于CA-Markov模型的艾比湖流域平原区景观格局动态模拟预测

利用“3S”技术及CA-Markov模型,按照是否实施跨流域调水工程2种预案情况,以2005年为起始时刻,对新疆艾比湖流域平原区2020年景观格局进行模拟预测。结果显示：在调水工程未实施的情况下,2020年研究区的生态环境将进一步恶化,其突出表现为艾比湖湖泊水面将持续萎缩、裸露湖底盐漠面积进一步扩大,水资源短缺及生态环境恶化的结果将严重制约研究区社会经济的发展;在调水工程实施的情况下,2020年研究区内艾比湖湖泊水面将稳定增加至800 km^2以上、裸露湖底盐漠面积相应有所减少,生态环境恶化趋势得到改善,区域水资源短缺问题将有所缓解,可有效地促进研究区内社会经济的发展。

Simulation of Landscape Patterns of Ebinur Lake Basin on CA-Markov Model

Simulation of landscape patterns was one of the important content in the study field of landscape ecology. Combine with CA - Markow model and ＂3S＂ technical, this paper took the 2005a as the original time and succeed simulated the landscape pattern of Ebinur lake basin in 2020a based on two different scenarios. The results showed the water surface area of Ebinur lake was above 800 km2 in 2020a. The area of sublacustrine salt desert decreased. Degradation trend of eco - environment and lack of water resource had been ameliorated.