Simulation of interannual responses of trembling aspen stands to climatic variation and insect defoliation in western Canada

A carbon-based model has been developed to simulate responses of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) stands to interannual climatic variation and insect defoliation. The model is designed for medium time scale (10–100 years) simulations and requires only daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation as meteorological inputs. The modelling approach is similar to FOREST-BGC but includes additional processes known to be important in deciduous forests. These include removal of leaf area during outbreaks of forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hbn.), phenological changes in leaf area index, storage and allocation of non-structural carbohydrate and the contribution of understorey vegetation to evapotranspiration. The model was used for simulations of growth and mortality of biomass carbon in two mature aspen forests located in the climatically dry transition zone between the boreal forest and prairie grassland regions of Saskatchewan, Canada. Model inputs of annual defoliation intensity were based on historic records of insect defoliation and the incidence of light-coloured tree rings in disks or cores collected from aspen at each of the two sites. At both sites, moderately good correlations (r²=0.47–0.54) were obtained between modelled interannual changes in stem carbon growth and observed interannual changes in stem basal area increment obtained from tree-ring analysis. Model outputs of stem biomass carbon were found to be highly sensitive to parameters describing seasonal leaf area duration, insect defoliation intensity, photosynthesis and root respiration and carbohydrate allocation to growth versus storage.