农业自然灾害与农村贫困之间的关系——基于安徽省面板数据的实证分析

自然灾害的发生对农业生产会造成巨大的负面影响。特别是经济落后的不发达地区由于本身的抗灾救灾能力弱．受到的自然灾害影响也更加严重。甚至会导致贫困的发生。目前虽然已经有学者定性地研究过农业自然灾害对农村贫困的影响．但是缺乏定量的分析。本文旨在弥补以前定量研究的空白，选择安徽省的59个县（市）面板数据为研究样本，建立模型实证分析。发现农业自然灾害受灾面积占总播种面积的比重与农村贫困发生率量负相关关系．这与已有的研究结果不同。文章的最后．依据实证结果对正确认识农业自然灾害与农村贫困之间的关系．构建农村自然灾害舫御体系．增强贫困地区农民的抗灾能力提出了政策建议。

The Relations between Natural Disasters of Agricultural and Rural Poverty Based on Analysis of Panel Date in AnHui Province

The occurrence of natural disasters on agricultural production would cause tremendous negative impact, particularly in undeveloped areas. The impact of natural disasters is more serious and even leads to occurring as their own disaster management capacity is weak. This article aims to cover the previous quantitative research gaps. A negative correlation between natural disasters affected the total area sown area and the incidence of rural poverty was found based on analysis of panel date in AnHui province, but the study has not compatible, So the author made this possible explanation. Some advice was given, based on the empirical results of a correct understanding of relations between natural disasters and agricultural rural poverty, a rural natural defense system, and the response capacity of farmers in impoverished areas.