Exploring potential socio-ecological impacts of changes to the Loliondo Gamed Controlled Area,Northern Tanzania: the case of the pastoral village Ololosokwan

Recent plans to alter the Loliondo Game Controlled Area (GCA), a nature conservation area located in Northern Tanzania, would result in substantial reduction of rangelands in the region. We quantify the current and hypothetical levels of the aboveground Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production (aHANPP) in one of the affected villages, and estimate the maximum exploitability rate of rangelands by livestock in the region. We find that the current aHANPP of the village amounts to 34–38% of the potential productivity, which could increase to 59–67% due to the altered GCA. On rangelands, livestock-induced aHANPP would increase from the current level of 30–34% to 54–61%, which is far above a maximum exploitability rate of 40–41%. Our results reveal that the intended changes to the Loliondo GCA will severely affect the current livelihood strategy of the Maasai, which is based on pastoralism.