Mathematische Modelle zur Effektabschätzung

The extrapolation from single-species toxicity data to ecosystem thresholds is one of the principal problems in ecological risk assessment. The common statistical methods are briefly presented prior to a brief trial application of simulation models. A method for calculating ecosystem thresholds for different end points using Monte-Carlo simulations is applied to a data set of eight substances and subsequently compared with statistical approaches. Finally, a comparison of the pros and cons of such simulation models for extrapolation is presented.