Ökotoxikologische Wirkungsabschätzung

Extrapolation is one of the most severe problems in ecotoxicological risk assessment. The protection of the environment requires the prediction of exposure to the ecosystem as well as the resulting changes in structural and functional properties. Three types of extrapolation models for effect assessment are discussed: ratio tests, empirical statistical models and the computer simulation of mathematical models. It has been demonstrated that the extrapolations used to regulate the release of chemicals into the environment are not supported scientifically. Aside from unrealistic or invalidated assumptions, problems are seen to result from the irreducible uncertainties inherent in the prediction of such ecological effects. Keeping precautionary principles in mind, some consequences concerning the decision-making processes in pre or post-marketing regulation as well as the legal aspects of such processes are introduced.