城市的可持续发展警度--以南京为例

城市作为一个“自然-经济-社会”巨复杂系统．它的运行需要进行不断的描述、评价和解释,以供城市发展调控部门进行动态的有效的调控。从而保证城市的可持续发展。在对城市系统发展度、协调度、持续度以及它们相互关系分析的基础上,提出城市可持续发展度的计算公式．并根据城市可持续发展度以及城市发展度、协调度和持续度的整合状态,对城市可持续发展的各种状态进行分析．得出一种警度分析表．为建立城市可持续发展预警系统提供基础。城市可持续发展预警是在城市可持续发展评价的基础上,对城市发展的序参量以及城市可持续发展相态进行预测．并根据预测的结果和城市可持续发展度进行预警。

Quantitative Analysis on Urban Sustainable Development Degree and Degree of Early Warning

As a "natural-economic-social" mega-complex system,urban operation needs to be described,evaluated and interpreted continually to provide urban development control departments sufficient signal to control the development dynamically and effectively,and ensure the USD(Urban Sustainable Development).On the basis of urban system development degree,sustainability,harmony level and the analysis of their correlative phase,this paper proposes calculating formula for assessment of urban sustainable development.According to the concordance of urban system development degree,sustainability,and harmony level,analyzing the various phase states of the urban development,a kind of warning degree analysis table is offered for the construction of early warning of urban sustainable development.The USD Early Warning(EW) based on USD analysis may forecast urban development order parameters and urban development phase states,then issue the early-warming by the forecasting results and urban development phase spectrum.