Skill and uncertainty of a regional air quality model ensemble |
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| Authors: | R Vautard M Schaap R Bergström B Bessagnet J Brandt PJH Builtjes JH Christensen C Cuvelier V Foltescu A Graff A Kerschbaumer M Krol P Roberts L Rouïl R Stern L Tarrason P Thunis E Vignati P Wind |
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| Institution: | 1. LSCE/IPSL Laboratoire CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, 91198 Gif sur Yvette, Cedex, France;2. TNO Built Environment and Geosciences, Utrecht, The Netherlands;3. SMHI, SE-601 76 Norrköping, Sweden;4. INERIS, Parc Technologique Halatte, Verneuil en Halatte, France;5. NERI, University of Aarhus, P.O. Box 358, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark;6. European commission, DG JRC, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, TP 483, I-21020 Ispra, Italy;7. UBA, Wörlitzer Platz 1, 06844 Dessau-Roßlau, Germany;8. Freie Universität, Berlin, Germany;9. IMAU, Institute of marine and atmospheric research, Utrecht, The Netherlands;10. Shell Global, HSE Department, P.O. Box 1, Chester CH1 3SH, United Kingdom;11. EMEP/MSC-W, P.O. Box 43, Blindern, 0313 Oslo, Norway;1. State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry (LAPC), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA;1. Yangtze River Delta Center for Environmental Meteorology Prediction and Warning, Shanghai 200030, PR China;2. Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai 200030, PR China;1. Air Quality Forecasting Lab, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA;2. Barons Advanced Meteorological Systems, Raleigh, NC, USA;1. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and Dept. of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University, USA;2. Dept. of Physics, Imperial College London, UK;3. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA;4. Dept. of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, USA;1. Office of Hydrologic Development, National Weather Service, Building SSMC II, 1325 East West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA;2. Department of Systems Engineering and Department of Statistics, University of Virginia, P.O. Box 400747, Charlottesville, VA 22904-4747, USA |
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| Abstract: | Recently several regional air quality projects were carried out to support the negotiation under the Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme by predicting the impact of emission control policies with an ensemble of models. Within these projects, CITYDELTA and EURODELTA, the fate of air quality at the scale of European cities or that of the European continent was studied using several models. In this article we focus on the results of EURODELTA. The predictive skill of the ensemble of models is described for ozone, nitrogen dioxide and secondary inorganic compounds, and the uncertainty in air quality modelling is examined through the model ensemble spread of concentrations.For ozone daily maxima the ensemble spread origin differs from one region to another. In the neighbourhood of cities or in mountainous areas the spread of predicted values does not span the range of observed data, due to poorly resolved emissions or complex-terrain meteorology. By contrast in Atlantic and North Sea coastal areas the spread of predicted values is found to be larger than the observations. This is attributed to large differences in the boundary conditions used in the different models. For NO2 daily averages the ensemble spread is generally too small compared with observations. This is because models miss highest values occurring in stagnant meteorology in stable boundary layers near cities. For secondary particulate matter compounds the simulated concentration spread is more balanced, observations falling nearly equiprobably within the ensemble, and the spread originates both from meteorology and aerosol chemistry and thermodynamics. |
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