Evaluation of a unified regional air-quality modeling system (AURAMS) using PrAIRie2005 field study data: The effects of emissions data accuracy on particle sulphate predictions

The effects of the accuracy of major-point source emissions input data on the predictions of a regional air-quality model (AURAMS) were investigated through a series of scenario simulations. The model domain and time period were chosen to correspond to that of PrAIRie2005, an air-quality field study with airborne and ground-based mobile measurement platforms that took place between August 12th and September 7th, 2005, over the city of Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. The emissions data from standard sources for three coal-fired power-plants located west (typically upwind) of the city were compared to the continuous emissions monitoring system (CEMS) taking place at the time of the study – the latter showed that the original emissions inventory data considerably overestimated NO_x, SO₂, and primary particulate emissions during the study period. Further field investigation (stack sampling) in the fall of 2006 showed that the measured primary particle size distribution and chemical speciation for the emissions were strikingly different from the distribution and speciation originally used in the model. The measured emissions were used to scale existing emissions data in accord with the CEMS and in-stack measurements.The effects of these improvements to the emissions data were examined sequentially in nested AURAMS simulations (finest horizontal resolution 3 km), and were compared to airborne aerosol mass spectrometer (Aerodyne AMS) measurements of particle sulphate, and particle distributions from an airborne passive cavity aerosol spectrometer probe (PCASP). The emissions of SO₂ had the greatest impact on predicted PM₁ sulphate, while the primary particle size distribution and chemical speciation had a smaller role. The revised emissions data greatly improved the comparisons between observations and model values, though over-predictions of fine-mode sulphate still occur near the power-plants, with the use of the revised emissions data. The modified emissions also had a significant impact on the larger particles of the particulate matter, with more primary PM in sizes greater than 1 μm diameter than had previously been estimated, and higher large particle concentrations close to the power-plants.