Modeling wintertime particulate matter formation in central California

A wintertime episode during the 2000 California Regional PM Air Quality Study (CRPAQS) was simulated with the air quality model CMAQ–MADRID. Model performance was evaluated with 24-h average measurements available from CRPAQS. Modeled organic matter (OM) was dominated by emissions, which were probably significantly under-represented, especially in urban areas. In one urban area, modeled daytime nitrate concentrations were low and evening concentrations were high. This diurnal profile was not explained by the partition of nitrate between the gas and particle phases, because gaseous nitric acid concentrations were low compared to PM nitrate. Both measured and simulated nitrate concentrations aloft were lower than at the surface at two tower locations during this episode. Heterogeneous reactions involving NO₃ and N₂O₅ accounted for significant nitrate production in the model, resulting in a nighttime peak. The sensitivity of PM nitrate to precursor emissions varied with time and space. Nitrate formation was on average sensitive to NO_x emissions. However, for some periods at urban locations, reductions in NO_x caused the contrary response of nitrate increases. Nitrate was only weakly sensitive to reductions in anthropogenic VOC emissions. Nitrate formation tended to be insensitive to the availability of ammonia at locations with high nitrate, although the spatial extent of the nitrate plume was reduced when ammonia was reduced. Reductions in PM emissions caused OM to decrease, but had no effect on nitrate despite the role of heterogeneous reactions. A control strategy that focuses on NO_x and PM emissions would be effective on average, but reductions in VOC and NH₃ emissions would also be beneficial for certain times and locations.