A SEQUENTIAL DECISION APPROACH IN RECREATIONAL ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT Benefits from recreation facilities are often estimated by multiplying the estimated number of user-days by an administratively determined dollar value per user-day. Such a method requires accurate estimates of total visitation to a proposed facility. Bayesian decision analysis provides a convenient statistical framework in which estimates of recreation visitation estimated using different methods can be combined to provide a more accurate estimate than that obtained from a single source. A Bayesian framework also provides the means of determining the optimal, with respect to a preselected cost function, number of interviews (including zero) that should be conducted in the primary market area. The procedure is demonstrated for a hypothetical recreation site in southern Indiana.