中国能源政策的大气污染物减排效果与附加效应--上海案例研究

为了研究中国能源政策对减少本地大气污染物排放的效果,以及减缓二氧化碳排放增长速度的附加效应,以上海为例,采用MARKAL模型对基础情景和能源政策情景下的能源消费及大气污染物排放量进行了预测,并分析了能源环境政策减缓二氧化碳排放增长的附加效应。结果显示,实施能源政策后,上海市的SO_2、PM_(10)。排放量均有大幅度降低,并可明显减缓CO_2排放的增长速度。2000～2020年,SO_2排放量将基本保持在2000年的水平,CO_2排放总量的年均增长率将由基础情景下的2.7％减小到能源政策情景下的1.1％～1.2％。

Local Air Pollutant Emission Reduction and Co-benefit of China Energy Policy: Shanghai Case Study

To better understand Local Air Pollutant Emission (LAPE) reduction and co-benefit of China energy policy, Shanghai Case study has been conducted. In this paper, MARKAL model was used to forecast energy consumption and atmospheric-pollutant emission in different energy policy scenarios, and also to analyze the co-benefit on CO2 emission mitigation. The results showed that energy policy in Shanghai will significantly reduce SO, and PM10 emission, and will also achieve the co-benefit on mitigating the increase of CO2 emission. In energy policy implemented scenarios, SO2 emission during 2000 to 2020 will keep as the level in 2000, and the increasing rate of CO2 emission will be reduced to 1.1%-1.2%, which would be 2.7%in BAU scenario.