中美两国经济发展与铜消费量对比研究

发达国家的发展过程表明,经济增长与铜消费量密切相关。本文由IPAT方程推导了铜消费指标与GDP间的关系式,得出GDP的年增长率（g）的单位GDP铜消费量的年下降率（t）是影响铜消费量变化的两个重要参数。给出了中、美两国铜消费指标与GDP间的关系曲线;中国1960-2004年间单位GDP的铜消费量并未形成明显的上升或下降趋势;美国1941-2004年间单位GDP铜消费量的变化总体上逐年降低,1941年为17.80kg/10^4USD,2003年为2.56kg/10^4USD,单位GDP的铜消费量降低近7倍。对应不同的单位GDP铜消费量年下降率的假设,估计了未来25年内中国经济增长与铜消费指标间的关系以及单位GDP铜消费量降低的倍数。

Comparative Study on Copper Consumption Per Unit GDP in China and USA

The developing processes in developed countries have demonstrated that the economic growth and copper consumption were closely related,which can be vividly described by the "S" curve of resources consumption in the process of industrialization.Some formulas of the relationship between copper consumption and GDP are derived from IPAT equation,and the annual growth rate of GDP(g) and annual decreasing rate of copper consumption per unit GDP(t) are two key parameters influencing copper consumption.The indexes of copper consumption,such as total copper consumption,copper consumption per unit GDP and copper consumption per person,and GDP including GDP per person for China and USA were calculated,and some curves reflecting the relationship between copper consumption and GDP were resulted.Based on these curves,the following results can be obtained.The variation of copper consumption per unit GDP in China didn't form obvious up or down trend from 1960 to 2004.But the copper consumption per unit GDP in USA decreased as a whole from 1941 to 2004,and the values in the year 1941 and 2003 were 17.80kg/10~4USD and 2.56kg/10~4USD respectively.That is to say,the GDP per unit copper consumption increased about seven times within these 62 years.On the different assumptions of annual decreasing rate of copper consumption per unit GDP,the relationships between economic growth and copper consumption in China were demonstrated,from which the increasing times of GDP per unit copper consumption in the following 25 years for China were estimated.