碳市场对能源结构低碳转型的影响及作用路径

选取中国2000~2018年30个省市的面板数据,构建了能源消费结构低碳化指数,基于多期双重差分、三重差分等方法实证检验碳交易政策与能源消费结构低碳转型之间的关系及异质性影响,并进一步利用多重中介效应模型探讨碳交易政策推动地区能源消费结构低碳转型的作用路径.结果表明:碳交易政策可以显著提升地区能源消费结构低碳化水平且作用效果逐年增强.从作用路径看,“四大效应”激励作用彰显,作用效果由大到小依次为结构优化效应、行为驱动效应、生态创新效应和环保支出效应;从异质性影响看,GDP增速较慢地区的政策实施加快了能源消费结构低碳转型,影响明显高于GDP增速较快地区;碳交易政策对东部地区的正向推动效应显著,对中西部地区无明显促进作用.

The impact of carbon market on the low - carbon transition of energy mix and its action path

This paper selects the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2000 to 2018 to construct the low-carbon energy consumption structure index, and investigates the relationship and heterogeneity between carbon trading policy and the energy consumption structure using multi-period double difference and triple difference methods, and further explores the mechanism of carbon trading policy on the low-carbon energy consumption structure by using multiple intermediary effect model. The results show that carbon trading policy significantly improves the low-carbon level of regional energy consumption structure and the effect keeps increasing year by year. The mechanism analysis shows that the incentive effect of the “four major effects” is obvious, and the effect from large to small is structural optimization effect, behavior-driven effect, ecological innovation effect and environmental protection expenditure effect. From the perspective of heterogeneity, the implementation of policies in regions with slower GDP growth has accelerated the low-carbon transition of energy consumption structure, and the impact is significantly higher than that in regions with faster GDP growth; carbon trading policy has a significant positive effect on the eastern region, but no significant effect on the central and western regions.