基于集对分析的石化企业安全投资状况动态评价

石油化工企业的安全事故频发和职业危害严重,不仅造成重大经济损失,而且对社会造成了不良影响,不合理的安全投资是造成这种状况的主要原因之一,对企业现有安全投资状况进行评价是合理进行安全投资的前提和基础。本文针对石油化工企业安全投资评价中诸多不确定性因素和动态特征进行分析,运用集对分析和马尔可夫链理论,建立了基于集对分析石化企业安全投资状况的动态评价模型,为安全投资状况评价工作提供了一个新方法。以某石油化工企业为例,通过对该企业2006-2009年这四年安全投资状况进行动态评价分析,并预测出2010年该企业的安全投资状况。评价结果表明,将集对分析和马尔可夫链理论用于石化企业安全投资状况的动态评价与预测,起到了非常好的效果,能够为企业科学合理地作出正确决策提供理论依据。

Dynamic estimation on safety investment in petrochemical enterprise based on set pair analysis

Frequent safety accidents and serious occupational harms of petro-chemical enterprises lead to not only great economic losses,but also harmful effects for community.One of the main reasons was unreasonable safety investment,and the premise and foundation of reasonable safety investment was to estimate the condition of safety investment for enterprise.In this work,a new dynamic estimation model for petrochemical enterprise safety investment was established based on SPA（set pair analysis） combining with the Markov theory,which focused on some uncertain factors and dynamic features during the safety investment estimation.A petrochemical enterprise was taken as a case study.By using the investment data set from 2006 to 2009,the safety investment status of the case enterprise was predicted.The results showed that the new method has promising performance in safety investment dynamic estimation and prediction,which is cost-effective tool for scientific determination and management.