液化天然气场站事故定量风险评价方法研究

液化天然气（LNG）具有低温、易挥发、易燃、易爆的特性,其场站安全问题凸显。研究结合某LNG汽车加注站加注枪或管道LNG溢出的可能性事故,对事故发生概率及后果进行定量分析,其中事故后果的确定采用DEGAD IS和LNGF ire3模型。文章结合相关文献提供的伤害准则数据,得出人员受伤等级和死亡率,进而确定事故造成的个人风险值。与英国、荷兰等国家和机构制定的个人风险标准进行比较,所得的个人风险大大低于标准极限值,同时表明将5kW/m2作为安全距离临界热辐射强度的合理性。

Quantitative risk analysis for LNG station accidents

Liquefied natural gas（LNG）has special hazard properties,such as cryogenic,volatile,flammable and explosive,so that the safety concern of a LNG station becomes one of the most important issues.The probable accident scenario of a LNG spill due to breakage of a filling gun or pipe during the filling process was considered and the probability and consequence of the hazard had been analyzed quantitatively.The consequences of the accident were predicted with DEGADIS and LNGFire3 models,respectively.The injury and casualty of the accident were determined with those criteria given by published literatures,and the value of the individual risk was obtained accordingly.In comparison with the standards of various countries and organizations such as Britain and Netherlands,it is found that the calculated value of the individual risk is much lower than the safety limit,and it is shown that using the radiation flux of 5 kW/m2 as the threshold in determination of the exclusive distance is reasonable.