基于突变理论的油库火灾爆炸分析与模糊动态评价

通过对目前油库常用评价方法的分析,这些方法存在的缺点主要是评价中参数值的选取、各评价指标权重的确定以及评价因素重要性的确定等问题,因易受到参评人员主观的影响,而导致评价难以获得客观结果。笔者提出了基于突变理论的模糊动态评价方法。介绍了突变理论的基本原理;建立油库火灾爆炸尖点突变模型,并对油库火灾爆炸现象进行突变分析;重点研究基于突变理论的油库模糊动态评价的基本思想和方法,通过对评价目标进行多层次分解,根据突变论归一公式进行量化递归运算,分别计算出不同时期油库安全总突变隶属函数值,从而实现对油库安全状态的模糊动态分析与评判。该方法的优点就在于各指标的重要性及其量化是根据突变论中归一公式本身的内在机理决定的,既避免了评价指标权重的确定问题,又减少了评价人员主观因素的影响。因而,评价结果客观、准确。示例表明,该方法是合理可行的。

Analysis of Fire and Explosion and Fuzzy Dynamic Safety Assessment for Oil Depot Based on Mutation Theory

Through the analysis of current safety assessment methods for oil depot, it is found that the main defects exist in the choice of parameter values in assessment, in determination of weight of assessment indexes and in determination of importance of assessment factors. The above-mentioned parameters are easily and subjectively influenced by personnel involved in assessment,thus making the assessment is hard to obtain objective consequence. A new fuzzy dynamic assessment based on mutation theory is proposed. Mutation theory is introduced; then a mutation model of needlepoint for fire & explosion is established, by which the phenomenon of fire & explosion is explained. Fuzzy dynamic safety assessment for oil depot based on the mutation theory is emphatically studied by decomposing assessment target into multi-stages and doing recursion operation according to some formula to calculate safety general mutating subjection function values for oil depot of different periods. Fuzzy dynamic safety assessment for oil depot is realized. The advantages of this method are that the method avoids the quantification of assessing indexes and the choice of parameter values, so the assessed result is objective and accurate. Exemplified example shows that the method is rationally feasible.