基于自适应灰色面板聚类的城市公共安全风险测度*

为科学评估城市公共安全风险，基于“脆弱性—能力”综合评估框架从公共安全风险事件维度入手，构建城市公共安全风险评估指标体系；选取2015—2019年与脆弱性和风险承载能力相关的22个指标，采用改进后的自适应灰色面板聚类从绝对量、增量和波动量3方面进行测度。聚类结果将全国城市的公共安全风险水平分为6个类型；基于研究结果进一步分析造成不同类型特征的原因，明确各城市公共安全管理存在的薄弱点，提出相关改进建议。研究结果表明:北京和上海在3个层面上均有较好表现，属于低风险城市；全国大部分地区呈现出绝对量水平中等或较差，增量和波动量水平较好的特征。

Urban public safety risk measurement based on adaptive grey panel clustering

To assess the urban public safety risk scientifically,an index system of urban public safety risk assessment was constructed based on the comprehensive assessment framework of “vulnerability-capacity” and from the dimension of public safety risk incidents.22 indexes related to vulnerability and risk bearing capacity from 2015 to 2019 were selected,and the improved adaptive grey panel clustering method was used to measure the absolute amount,increment and fluctuation.The clustering results divided the public safety risk levels of Chinese cities into 6 types.Based on the research results,the reasons of different type characteristics were further analyzed,then the weak points of public safety management in cities were identified,and the relevant improvement suggestions were put forward.The results showed that Beijing and Shanghai had good performance in three levels,belonging to low-risk cities.Most areas presented the moderate or poor level of absolute amount,and the good level of increment and fluctuation.