防洪工程信赖对公众洪灾风险认知的影响——以开封沿黄地区与岳阳洞庭湖区为例

防洪工程作为人类抵御洪灾的首选手段,为人们提供了保障,但人们对其风险认知还存在一定的偏差。本文从公众层面入手,在我国历史上洪灾最严重的两大流域—长江流域和黄河流域,分别选取岳阳沿洞庭湖区和开封沿黄河地区为研究区,调查公众对当地防洪工程的信赖状况和水灾风险认知情况,回收有效样本831份。据此分析影响防洪工程信赖的因素和工程信赖对公众风险认知的影响。研究发现,公众对防洪工程的信赖度较高,区域趋同性明显;公众对工程信赖的程度,因居住地与风险源的距离、性别、年龄和家庭劳动力结构的不同而存在差异;同时,对防洪工程的过于信赖,会降低公众对洪灾的恐惧心理和警惕性,并使得公众产生消极和积极并存的应对灾害的行为倾向。洪灾多发地区应建立大型洪灾、巨灾的风险防范和洪水保险机制,完善我国的再保险制度;政府在高风险区的分区域管理过程中,应以大局为重;构建"文化自觉"的科学防灾文化观,正确引导公众认识到工程措施能力的限度,扭转在工程信赖基础上的风险认知偏差。

Analysis on Trust in Local Ability of Flood Control Engineering and Its Influences on Public Perception of Flood Risk: Case Study of Areas along the Yellow River in Kaifeng and Dongting Lake in Yueyang

The flood control engineering is the preferred means against flood,but when it provides guarantee for human,it also increases people's psychology and behavior of trust.The thesis started from the public level,selected areas along the Dongting Lake in Yueyang and the Yellow River in Kaifeng,which both suffered from serious floods in the history,as the study areas,carried out the study of public trust situation and flood risk perception,and obtained 831 pieces of effective questionnaires.The results show as follows.Public show relatively high degree of trust on the flood control engineering.The regional analysis shows that the public trust on the flood control engineering has the characteristics of universality.The degree of trust on the project varies with distance of houses from the risk source such as the water area and flood embankment,gender,age,and structure of family labour force.Meanwhile,enhancement of trust on the flood control engineering will reduce the public fear and vigilance of floods.The broad trust of public to flood prevention engineering will reduce about 30%-50% of risk probability for the family.Such perception,on one hand,is negative for disaster reduction behavior,and on the other hand,is positive.Therefore,a scientific disaster prevention culture perception is helpful to guide the public to recognize the limitation of projects,and correct the bias of risk perception.