区域自然灾害综合风险模糊随机评价方法

从自然灾害危险性、社会经济易损性和区域设防等多种角度建立了区域自然灾害综合风险评价指标体系。针对典型自然灾害综合风险评价影响因素具有随机性、模糊性和数据资料不精确等多种不确定性,利用蒙特卡洛方法模拟三角模糊数,把三角模糊数及其函数之间的运算简化为普通的实数之间的运算,从而建立区域自然灾害综合风险模糊随机评价模型。研究表明,在评价结果一致的前提下以置信区间形式表示的综合风险评价结果比其他常规方法,提供的信息更加丰富,充分反映了受多种不确定性因素综合影响的区域自然灾害综合风险评价的客观实际情况,研究结果可为区域防御自然灾害与提升综合抗灾能力提供决策依据。

Fuzzy stochastic simulation method for comprehensive risk assessment of regional natural disaster

An index system of comprehensive risk assessment for regional natural disaster risk was established in terms of the risk of natural disasters, socio-economic vulnerability and regional fortification.According to many uncertaintyfactors such as randomness, fuzziness and the shortage and imprecision of datum information of compre -hensive risk assessment for regional natural disaster risk , Monte-Carlo method was presented to simulate triangularfuzzy numbers for transforming the operations of triangular fuzzy numbers and their functions into the conventionaloperations of real numbers, and then a comprehensive risk assessment method for regional natural disaster risk usingstochastic simulation and triangular fuzzy numbers was established .The application results showed that the assess -ment expressed by confidence intervals can provide more reliability information than that of common evaluationmethods, which can reflect practical conditions of the comprehensive risk assessment method for regional naturaldisaster, and can also be applied to comprehensive risk assessment problems of different disaster risk affected bymany uncertainty factors.