基于前景理论突发水污染事件个体行为研究

前景理论(Prospect Theory,PT)能很好地描述个体在不确定条件下的行为决策模式和风险偏好。分析表明,利用前景理论研究突发水污染事件中的个体行为决策具有一定的适用性和可行性,因此,建立了突发水污染事件个体行为决策框架。以典型的镇江市水源苯酚污染事故为例,运用突发水污染事件个体行为决策框架,描述了突发水污染事件中的个体行为特征,研究了突发水污染事件中的个体主要决策偏差及其产生的主要原因,并对突发水污染事件中的个体决策偏差下的行为及行为表现进行了分析,提出了个体突发水污染事件应对模式。

Research on individual behavior in emergency event of water pollution based on prospect theory

Prospect theory （ PT） can describe decision model of individual behavior under uncertain conditions and personal risk appetite well .Analysis indicates that PT has the applicability and feasibility in decision of individual behavioral in emergency event of water pollution , therefore , a framework model on decision of individual behavior in emergency event of water pollution was established .The individual behavior characteristics in emergency event of water pollution were described based on PT .The deviation of individual major decision in emergency event of water pollution and its main causes were studied , and the behaviors of individual decision deviation in emergency event of water pollution were analyzed in the typical case of phenol water pollution took place in ZhenJiang .Finally , an in-dividual response mode in emergency event of water pollution was presented .