| 贵州春旱短期气候预测信号及预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 许炳南,武文辉.贵州春旱短期气候预测信号及预测模型研究[J].灾害学,2001,16(3):33-37. |
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| 作者姓名： | 许炳南 武文辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 贵州省气象局,
2. 贵州省气象中心, |
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| 基金项目： | 贵州科委"九五”攻关项目<贵州短期气候预测业务系统的研究>的一部编号:黔科合计字1996-081) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文分析研究了贵州春旱的大气环流异常特征,寻找确定了贵州春早的6个短期气候预测信号,并在此基础上以1957～1996年作为样本年代建立了春旱短期气候预测模型.预测模型经1997～2000年为期4年的独立试报,取得了良好效果.
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| 关 键 词： | 春旱灾害 预测信号 短期气候预测 贵州 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-811(2001)03-0033-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年4月3日 |
A Study on Forecast Signals and Forecast Models of Spring Drought in Guizhou |
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| XU Bing nan ,WU Wen hui.A Study on Forecast Signals and Forecast Models of Spring Drought in Guizhou[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2001,16(3):33-37. |
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| Authors: | XU Bing nan WU Wen hui |
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| Institution: | XU Bing nan 1,WU Wen hui 2 |
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| Abstract: | In this paper anomaly atmospheric circulation feature of spring server drought in Guizhou and their forecast signals are analyzed Six signals for short term spring drought forecast are obtained By the use of these forecast signals, taking a pe riod from 1957 to 1996 as a swatch, a short term climatic forecast model of spring sever drought in Guizhou is established With this model, an independent 4 year test forecast of 1997 2000 is made and the results are satisfactory |
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| Keywords: | spring drought disaster forecast signal short term climatic forecast |
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