中国2000年污水总量预测

目前我国可利用水资源约1.1亿米~3,人均占有水资源2700米~3,低于世界多数国家。据初步预测,2000年全国总取水量约为6300亿米~3,年均增长率约1.5％,供需矛盾日益突出。由于我国生产工艺、技术落后,排污系数高;治理费用不足,污水处理率低,约有83.4％的污水未经处理直接排入水体,致使许多江河、湖泊、地下水、近海海域受到不同程度的污染,且污染程度逐年加重;再加上我国经济、人口的迅速增长,管理方式落后,法制不健全,使我国的污水总量日益增长。据初步预测,当2000年工农业总产值翻两番时,全国污水总量达800亿米~3,约为1980年的2.8倍,年平均递增5.3％;工业废水排放量约600亿米~3;城市生活污水排放量约200亿米~3。在工业废水量预测中采用了产值系数法,工业行业统计法及系统动力学等方法、模型。在城市生活污水量预测中采用了人均系数法(全国平均法和南、北方分别统计法)及系统动力学等方法、模型。应用不同方法、模型得出的预测结果相互验证,对照分析,最后用系统分析的方法给出预测结果。中国2000年污水总量的预测成果为决策者制定全国范围内的宏观决策与控制对策提供了科学依据。 

Prediction of Total Wastewater by the year 2000 in China

At present , water resources available in China are about 110 million m3 or 2700 m3 per Ca -bita , less than most of the countries in world ; and the total demand of water by the year 2000 is about 63000 million m3, incrasing annually about 1.5 % in arerage with growing contradiction between supply and demand . Due to lag of production technology and deficiency of fund , aboudt 85.4% of wastewater is discharged directly without treatment , giving rise to continuous pollution of many rivers , lakes , groundwater and coastal sea water in various degrees . In addition , the rapid growth rate of economy and population , the laekward way of management and the limperfect legal system also make the total wastewater increased day by day . Based on preliminary estimation , as the total output values of agriculture and industries are doubled , the total wastewater will be up to 80000 million m3 , nearly 2.8 times as that in 1980 , with an average rare of 5.3 % annually . Among them , the industrial wastewater occupier about 60000 million m3 and the urban domestic sewage about 2000 million m3 . Many methods and models , such as the output value coefficient , in-dustral statistics and systematic dynamics , are adopted in the industrial wastewater prediction ; while those such as per capita coefficient ( the south and the north oveiaged reparatily and the national averaged ) and systematic dynamics adopted in the urban domestic sewage prediction The resulets obtained were tested , verified and compared each other and finally analysed systematically . The predicted total wastewater by the year 2000 will provide the policymakers with scientific basis for national macro-decisions and control control countermeasures .