我国溃坝生命损失评价模型初步研究

根据我国8座已溃决大坝的现场调查结果,结合国内外溃坝生命损失研究成果,初步研究并提出适合我国实际情况的溃坝生命损失评价模型和风险人口死亡率,应用该模型和Graham法估算了这8座水库的溃坝生命损失,与实际生命损失情况进行了比较.结果表明,模型具有一定的适用性.

Evaluation model of loss of life due to dam breach in China

This paper has brought forward a preliminary assessment model of casualty and material loss due to the dam breach and death data of the population at risk in accordance with the in-situ investigation results with the eight breached dams in China. We have also studied the similar cases and the returns of loss of life in reference to the dam breach abroad. In addition, the paper has also illustrated the main influential factors leading the dam breach, which determines the corresponding range of the values of the model parameters, and makes use of 1 - 9 scaling procedures by Saaty to gain the weighting coefficients of the influential factors. The new model and method given by Graham can both be applied to the actual estimation of casualty caused by the breach of the eight dams. The results of estimation gained have been carefully compared with the actual loss of life. Thus it can be found that the suggested model is better fit for the actual conditions in China. Furthermore, the suggested evaluation model has been checked with proper recommendations given for further improvement.