海洋碳汇渔业绿色发展空间外溢效应评价研究

海洋碳汇渔业绿色发展空间关联性及其外溢效应对于海水养殖业的有效协调和区域海洋环境的有效保护具有重要意义,科学估算沿海各省(自治区)海水养殖渔业碳汇量并探讨其空间相关性特征是制定差异化渔业碳汇发展政策的重要基础。根据2006—2016年中国大陆沿海9个省(自治区)的碳汇渔业资源清查数据,在检验和比较省域空间渔业碳汇总量相关性特征的基础上,运用空间计量模型分析了渔业碳汇的外溢效应及其影响因素。结果表明:①中国海水养殖渔业碳汇量整体上呈现上升趋势,但各省渔业碳汇量也存在明显差异。②研究期内的Moran's I指数整体呈现为"V"型的波动变化特征,渔业碳汇在省域空间分布上的差异性并不是随机的,而是具备显著的空间相关性。③海水养殖渔业碳汇存在明显的空间外溢效应,通过随机效应的杜宾模型分解后得出渔业产值、劳动力投入的直接效应为正,而渔业受灾面积和科研项目经费投入的直接效应为负;从间接效应来看,渔业产值在各省域间存在竞争与依存关系,海水养殖业劳动力投入和渔业技术推广的项目经费投入在各省域间存在互补关系。因此,中国沿海各省份在发挥海洋水产养殖业生态功能时,应当考虑省域区位因素,合理制定兼具差异化和协调性的海洋碳汇渔业发展政策。

Evaluation of spatial spillover effect of green development of marine carbon-sink fisheries

The spatial correlation and spillover effect of green development of marine carbon sink fishery are of great significance to the effective coordination of marine aquaculture and the effective protection of regional marine environment.Scientific estimation of marine aquaculture carbon sink in coastal provinces and discussion of its spatial correlation characteristics are the important basis for formulating differentiated fishery carbon sink development policies.Based on examining and comparing the correlation characteristics of the total amount of carbon sink in the provincial space fishery,the fishery carbon sink of each province along the coast of China's Mainland from 2006 to 2016 was calculated by using the spatial econometric model based on the inventory data of carbon sink fishery resources.The results showed that:Frist,as a whole,the carbon sink of mariculture fishery in China was on the rise,but there were obvious differences among provinces.Second,Moran’s I index in the study period showed the characteristics of‘V’fluctuation as a whole.The difference of fishery carbon sink in the spatial distribution of provinces was not random,but had significant spatial correlation.Third,the carbon sink of mariculture fishery in China had obvious spatial spillover effect.The direct effect of fishery output value and labor input was positive,while the direct effect of fishery disaster area and research project investment was negative.From the perspective of indirect effect,there was a competition and dependence relationship between different regions in fishery output value,while there was a complementary relationship between the labor input of aquaculture industry and the project fund input of fishery technology promotion.Therefore,it is suggested that China should take the regional factors of provinces into consideration when it plays the ecological function of marine aquaculture,and make reasonable marine carbon sink fishery development policies with differentiation and coordination.