IPCC的成立、机制、影响及争议

通过对IPCC成立背景、工作机制、主要报告与影响、有关争议的研究,特别是有关历史背景和第六次评估报告的进展,提出对中国开展气候变化评估的启示建议,供中国相关工作参考。对IPCC成立历史背景的研究发现,在科学家和国际组织的持续推动下,气候变化越来越得到各国政府的重视,为避免独立专家组可能带来的激进环保主义倾向,1988年成立了政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC),将专家纳入到政府间框架下专门开展气候变化评估,提供关于气候变化的权威信息,并遵循科学家与政府一致同意方才发布报告的原则开展工作。IPCC通过组织会员国推荐的志愿专家开展评估,建立了由主席团、工作组构成的专家评估团队以及支持主席团政务工作的秘书处、支持工作组的技术支持组,按照建立组织与程序、确定评估范围与专家、编制与审稿、批准与发布等四个环节开展工作。自1990年以来已经发布了五次评估报告,为《联合国气候变化框架公约》(UNFCCC)、《京都议定书》《巴黎协定》等协议的达成提供了科学依据,目前正在开展第六次评估,将重点面向2023年UNFCCC全球盘点。虽然IPCC在工作审查程序、行政管理效率、政府批准决策者摘要等方面有一些争议,但工作总体上是成功的,并在2010年进行了改革优化,受到科学界和国际组织的承认和拥护。从IPCC的经验来看,积极寻找和达成共识是科学与政治决策协同合作的核心要素,未来气候评估将更加重视科学与政策的联系以及跨学科、跨领域、技术驱动和不确定性问题,针对复杂系统的科学评估需要不断完善相应管理制度,中国气候评估也需要积极响应国际进展,突出特色与重点。

The establishment,mechanism,influence and controversies of IPCC

By investigating the establishment,mechanism,outputs and influence,as well as the controversies of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),especially its history and sixth assessment,this paper studies this international organization’s implications for China’s climate assessments.The history of IPCC suggests that climate change is attracting more and more attention from governments with continuous efforts of scientists and international organizations.In order to avoid the tendency of radical environmentalism that an independent panel may bring,IPCC was established in 1988,recruiting experts to implement climate assessment within the intergovernmental framework and to provide authorized climate information under the principle of actions after consensus between scientists and governments.Climate assessment is implemented through voluntary experts nominated by governments;experts are elected to form the IPCC Bureau and Work Groups,which are supported by the Secretariat and Technical Support Unit.IPCC’s reports are processed by following the program of building structure and procedure,scoping and selecting experts,drafting and reviewing,as well as approval and publication.Since 1990,IPCC has published five reports on climate change,providing a physical basis for the UNFCCC,the Kyoto Protocol,the Paris Protocol,and is currently working on the sixth assessment,which will give high priority on UNFCCC global stocktake in 2023.Although there are controversies on its procedure,administrative efficiency and compromise with politics,IPCC is generally successful and widely recognized by scientists and international organizations.It was undergone a structural reform in 2010,which has improved its efficiency.Learning from IPCC’s experiences,we should be aware that consensus is the key element of cooperation between scientific and political institutions,future climate assessments will increasingly rely on the active interactions between these institutions to deal with interdisciplinary and uncertain issues,continuous managerial adjustment is necessary for climate change assessment,and China’s climate change assessments should also respond to the UNFCCC global stocktake in 2023.