空气污染视角下北京市产业结构调整的政策模拟研究

空气污染问题是制约经济社会健康发展的重要因素,产业结构调整是缓解该问题的重要途径,探究产业结构调整对于空气污染问题的改善效应具有重要的意义。本文以环境保护和经济增长为双重目标,以投入产出理论为基础,构建了一个一般的具有政策权重的产业结构双目标优化模型。模型目标中的权重体现了政策对两个目标的倾向性需求。给定了某种政策权重,就能根据优化模型计算出最优的产业结构。进一步,我们以SO 2的排放量作为环保指标,以GDP作为经济指标,利用上述模型,依据实际数据,在不同政策权重下,对北京市2017年的产业结构进行了模拟测算,从而给出了与之对应的北京市最优化的产业结构调整方案。特别地,选择了其中三种政策倾向力度,即经济增长偏向性政策、中性政策、环境保护偏向性政策方案,分别给出了最优产业结构方案的数量结果和两个目标的值。我们注意到,2017年的实际值与2016年的实际值相比,2017年的污染物SO 2的排放量大幅减少,且GDP也有所增加,这表明了政府部门的政策相对有效。但是,我们计算出的三种最优化的产业结构对应的两个目标值均优于2017年实际值。事实上,对于经济偏向性政策,最优化的产业结构使得GDP的数量上升更多,而SO 2的排放量也减少了不少;即使是采用环保偏向性政策,不仅使污染物SO 2的排放量更少,而且使GDP的数量仍然高于2017年的实际值。这说明本文提出的通过优化产业结构实现环境保护是一个可行的、合理的途径。

Policy simulation study on industrial structure adjustment in Beijing from the perspective of air pollution

The problem of air pollution is an important factor restricting the healthy development of economly and society.The adjustment of industrial sfructure is an important way to alleviate this problem.It is of great Significance to explore the effect of industrial structure adjustucent on the improvement of air pollution.In order to meet the dual goals of achieving environmental protection and economic growth and based on the input-output theory,this paper constructs a general bi-objective programming model of industrial structure with policy weight.The weight in the model reflects the policy bias for both goals.Given a certain policy weight,the optimal industrial structure can be calculated by the model.Furthermore,using SO 2 emissions as an environmental indicator and GDP as an economic indicator and based on the actual data,this study simulates the industrial structure of Beijing in 2017 with the model using different policy weights,and provides corresponding optimized industrial restructuring plans.In particular,by selecting three policy weights corresponding to the economic growth bias,the neutral bias,and the environmental protection bias respectively,the model yields quantitative results of the optimal industrial structure scheme and values of the two objectives.It is noted that comparing the actual value of 2017 with the one of 2016,the emissions of SO 2 pollutants in 2017 significantly decreased and GDP increased,indicating that the government's policies were relatively effective.However,the two objective values calculated for all of the three optimized industrial structures are better than the actual values in 2017.In fact,for the economic bias policy,the optimal industrial structure could increase the amount of GDP much more and significantly decrease the SO 2 emissions;even the adoption of the environmental bias policy could not only reduce the SO 2 emissions,but also increase the amount of GDP to a higher level than the actual value of 2017.This shows that the realization of environmental protection by optimizing the industrial structure proposed in this paper is a feasible and reasonable way.