中国汽车尾气控制政策的减排效果研究

汽车尾气污染给我国带来了较为严重的健康问题和经济损失。为了应对汽车尾气污染,我国政府采取了一系列尾气控制治理措施。从流量污染和存量污染的角度研究这些综合治理政策,可以为进一步完善这些政策提供科学依据。利用2010─2017年我国31个省(市)汽车实际排放的流量数据,采用不同省(市)的综合治理政策对汽油汽车和柴油汽车尾气流量控制效果的研究结果表明:①燃油价格、燃油税(除柴油)、排放标准和燃油标准对汽车尾气流量控制有减排效果,限行在短期内对汽车尾气的控制有明显的效果,但长期内会被弱化。②在汽油汽车中,尾气流量控制政策在东部的效果优于西部,西部的效果优于中部;在柴油汽车中,尾气流量控制政策在西部的效果优于东部,东部的效果优于中部。③在平原地区,除柴油价格对氮氧化物有控制作用,柴油税、排放标准、柴油标准和限行对柴油汽车尾气控制的作用不显著。④在限行地区,汽油汽车中四种控制政策(汽油价格、汽油税、排放标准和汽油标准)对汽油汽车产生的三种尾气流量控制有很强的调节作用。对于柴油汽车,燃油税对一氧化碳和碳氢化合物有控制作用,柴油价格、排放标准和柴油标准对氮氧化物具有控制作用。通过研究我国汽车实际排放流量数据,得到了汽车尾气减排政策下的经济效应。结果进一步显示,2009─2017年汽车尾气实际减排是否获得正的经济效应取决于消散率和贴现率。当消散率δ=0.05、贴现率R=0.01时,其经济效应为正,对应减排的净贴现值NPV为21.93亿元;当消散率δ=0.20、贴现率R=0.1时,其经济效应为负,其减排的净贴现值NPV为-23.86亿元;2009年到2100年汽车尾气每年减排5%和每年减排10%都能获得正的经济效益。

Research on reduction effect of emission control policy on vehicle exhaust in China

Automobile exhaust has brought serious health problems and economic losses to China.In order to reduce automobile exhaust,the government has taken a series of measures to control it.We study these comprehensive control policies from the perspective of flow pollution and stock pollution to provide scientific basis for improving these policies.The paper studies the reduction effect of emission control policies implemented in gasoline and diesel vehicles in different provinces(cities)by using the actual emission data of motor vehicles in 31 provinces(cities)from 2010 to 2017.The results show that:①Fuel price,fuel tax(except diesel),emission standard and gasoline standard have emission reduction effect on gasoline vehicle exhaust control.The restrictions have obvious effect on automobile exhaust control in the short term,but it will be weak in the long term.②As for gasoline cars,the effect of emission control in the Middle East is more significant than that in the west,and the effect of emission control in the west is better than that in the middle.In diesel vehicles,the effect of exhaust control policy is superior in the west than that in the east.The effect of exhaust control policy is superior in the east than that in the middle.③In plain areas,the emission reduction effect of diesel tax,emission standards,diesel standards and restrictions on diesel vehicle exhaust is not significant except diesel price has a control effect on nitrogen oxides.④In the restricted areas,there are four kinds of control policies(gasoline price,gasoline tax,emission standard and gasoline standard),which have a strong regulating effect on exhaust produced by gasoline cars.For diesel vehicles,fuel taxes can effectively control carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons,and diesel prices,emission standards and gasoline standards can control nitrogen oxides.By studying the actual emission data of automobiles in China,we obtain the economic effects of automobile emission reduction policies.The results also show that,whether the actual emission reduction of automobile exhaust from 2009 to 2017 can achieve positive economic effect depends on dissipation rate and discount rate.When the dissipation rateδis equal to 0.05 and the discount rate R is equal to 0.01,the economic effect is positive,and the net discounted value of NPV to emission reduction is 21.93 billion Yuan;When the dissipation rateδis equal to 0.20 and the discount rate R is equal to 0.1 and the economic effect is negative.The net discounted value of NPV to emission reduction is-23.86 billion Yuan.From 2009 to 2100,a 5%reduction per year and a 10%reduction per year would yield positive economic benefits.