空间贫困分异特征、陷阱形成与致贫因素分析

消除贫困是中国共产党的一项重要历史使命。目前,中国脱贫攻坚进入关键的决战决胜阶段,精准脱贫成为实现乡村振兴及全面建成小康社会的关键问题。本文以贫困突出的江西革命老区为例,采用ESDA空间探索性分析和空间计量模型,探究其空间贫困分异特征、陷阱形成机制及影响因素,发现:①从时间维度看,2000—2016年,受国家贫困标准线大幅调整影响,江西革命老区贫困人口和贫困发生率呈现三个断点下降时期,总体脱贫进程加快。②从空间维度看,江西革命老区各县(市、区)的贫困人口和贫困发生率明显减少,贫困分异特征表现为高贫困地区集聚于南部的集中连片区或国家级贫困县,低贫困地区主要集聚于北部的非贫困区。③进一步通过空间检验发现,江西革命老区贫困以"高-高"集聚模式为主,并形成"空间贫困陷阱",均属于集中连片特困区或国家级贫困县;少数地区的贫困还存在"低-低"集聚模式,形成"脱贫溢出效应",均属于非贫困区。④实证结果表明,城乡收入之比和中学教师负担学生数显著加剧了江西革命老区贫困水平;而农民人均纯收入、卫生技术人员比例和农业机械化水平对减贫具有显著正向作用;贫困空间滞后项的显著为正也再次验证了江西革命老区"空间贫困陷阱"及"脱贫溢出效应"的存在性;相邻地区的农民人均纯收入和卫生技术人员比例的减贫效果存在显著的空间溢出效应。为此,本文提出实现江西革命老区精准脱贫建议。

Spatial poverty of differentiation,trap formation and poverty factor

Alleviating poverty is one of important historical missions of the communist party of China(CPC),and currently,the battle of China’s poverty alleviation has reached a crucial stage of securing a decisive victory,which makes targeted poverty alleviation become a key issue in realizing rural revitalization and completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects.In the case of Jiangxi Old Revolutionary Base Areas(ORBA)in which the poverty problems are prominent,this paper explores the different characteristics,trap formation mechanisms,and poverty factors of the spatial poverty by adopting a spatial exploratory analysis and spatial econometric model,finding that:①From the perspective of time dimension,the poor population and poverty incidence rate in the ORBA show three declining breakpoints during from 2000 to 2016,and the poverty alleviation process was overall accelerated,which could be affected by the substantial adjustment of the national poverty standards.②From the perspective of spatial dimension,the poverty population and incidence of poverty in all counties(cities and districts)of the ORBA are significantly reduced,and the differentiation features of poverty manifest as that the high poverty areas are concentrated in contiguous poverty-stricken areas or national-level poor counties in the south of the ORBA,while the low poverty areas are mainly concentrated in the non-poor areas in the north of the ORBA.③Further the spatial test shows that the poverty in the ORBA is mainly‘high-high’agglomeration pattern,and form spatial poverty trap,which are mainly belongs to contiguous poverty-stricken areas or national-level poor counties.A few counties still have a‘low-low’agglomeration pattern,and form spillover effect of poverty alleviation,which belong to non-poverty areas.④The empirical results show that the ratio of rural-urban income and middle school students to teachers significantly aggravate the poverty level of the ORBA.The per capita net income of peasant,the proportion of health technicians and the level of agricultural mechanization have significant positive effects on poverty reduction in ORBA.The significantly positive spatial lag of poverty also verifies the existence of the spatial poverty trap and spillover effect of poverty alleviation in ORBA.In neighboring areas,there are significant spatial spillover effects of the rural per capita net income and the proportion of health technicians.Accordingly,the paper puts forward some suggestions on achieving targeted poverty alleviation in the ORBA.