工业化不同发展阶段碳排放影响因素驱动效应测度

应对全球气候变化的大背景下,不同发展水平国家不断采取碳减排策略,实现社会经济与碳减排目标的协调发展。本文选取34个不同工业化阶段的典型国家,在验证时间序列平稳性和协整性的前提下,利用脉冲响应和方差分解探究不同工业化阶段国家碳排放强度、能源强度、可再生能源占比及工业化率对碳排放变动的驱动效应。结果表明,驱动方向方面,除了委内瑞拉,后工业化阶段和工业化后期阶段技术和结构因素均为负向驱动因素;工业化中期-后期阶段、工业化初期-中期阶段及工业化初期阶段中除能源结构是负向驱动因素外,其他因素几乎均为正向驱动因素。驱动程度方面,技术和结构因素对碳排放变动的平均贡献度表现为:后工业化阶段、工业化中期-后期阶段低于30%,工业化初期阶段、工业化初期-中期阶段和工业化后期阶段均超过40%,这与不同阶段的经济社会发展、产业结构和技术进步紧密相关。后工业化阶段国家有8个碳排放变动受到工业发展的主导,工业化率平均贡献度为14.78%;3个国家受能源结构主导,可再生能源占比平均贡献度为12.97%。工业化阶段碳排放变动受技术主导的国家有13个,碳排放强度平均贡献度为14.72%,受能源强度主导的8个国家的平均贡献度为17.61%。技术进步在工业化阶段碳减排作用显著,而能源和产业结构调整在后工业化阶段碳减排效果显著。现阶段中国应着重进行技术变革,稳步提升低碳技术;进入工业化后期阶段和后工业化阶段后,着重进行能源结构和产业结构调整实现结构碳减排,从而实现经济社会低碳绿色发展。

Study on the measurement of carbon-driven effects from different development stages of industrialization

In response to the global climate change,countries with different levels of development continue to adopt carbon emission reduction strategies in order to achieve a good fit between the pursuit of economic development and the achievement of carbon emission reduction targets.In this paper,34 typical countries with different industrialization stages were selected.Under the premise of verifying the stability and co-integration of time series,the driving effect of national carbon emission intensity,energy intensity,proportion of renewable energy and industrialization rate on the changes of carbon emissions in different industrialization stages were explored by using impulse response and variance decomposition.The results show that in terms of driving direction,with the exception of Venezuela,the technical and structural factors in the post-industrialization stage and the late-industrialization stage were the negative driving factors.In the mid-late industrialization stage,the initial-mid industrialization stage and the initial-industrialization stage,other factors were almost positive drivers except for the energy structure.In terms of driving degree,the average contribution of technical and structural factors to carbon emission changes were less than 30%in the post-industrialization stage and the mid-late industrialization,and more than 40%in the initial-industrialization stage,the initial-industrialization stage and the late-industrialization stage.This is closely related to the economic and social development,industrial structure and technological progress at different stages.In the post-industrialization stage,the carbon emission changes of eight countries were dominated by the industrialization rate,with an average contribution of 14.78%.Three countries were dominated by renewable energy,with an average contribution of 12.97%.In the industrialization stage,carbon emission intensity was dominated by 13 countries with an average contribution of 14.72%;Eight of the energy intensity-driven countries had an average contribution of 17.61%.Technological progress had a significant effect on carbon emission reduction in the industrialization stage,while the adjustments in energy structure and industrial structure had significant effects on carbon emission reduction in the post-industrialization stage.At the current stage,China should focus on technological changes and steadily upgrade low-carbon technologies.After entering the late-industrialization stage and post-industrialization stage,China should focus on energy structure and industrial structure adjustments to achieve structural carbon emission reduction,thereby achieving economic and social low-carbon green development.