共生视角下中国区域“水-能源-粮食”复合系统适配性评估

水资源、能源和粮食是人类生存发展的基础资源,三者之间的交互关系被称为“水-能源-粮食”纽带。中国水资源、能源和粮食(耕地)资源时空分布不匹配,影响资源流动效率。随着资源供需矛盾加剧,资源管理方式亟需从“单资源”规划向“多资源”协同转变,因此,开展“水-能源-粮食”复合系统适配性评估对推动多资源协同管理具有重要意义。本文引入共生理论,构建“水-能源-粮食”系统共生架构,提出区域“水-能源-粮食”系统适配概念,将“水-能源-粮食”系统适配性分解为稳定性、协调性和可持续性,基于压力-状态-影响-响应(PSIR)模型构建适配性评估指标体系,对2000—2016年我国区域“水-能源-粮食”系统适配性进行综合评估。研究表明:①可持续性对“水-能源-粮食”复合系统适配性影响最大,协调性是适配性提升的短板,稳定性是适配性的重要基础。②我国“水-能源-粮食”复合系统的整体适配性、协调性、可持续性水平呈上升趋势,增长速度先快后慢,稳定性指数小幅波动,趋于平稳。③我国“水-能源-粮食”复合系统适配性时空分异特征明显,东北、东部地区的适配性水平相对较高,主要呈上升趋势;中部、西部地区的适配性水平相对较低,主要呈下降趋势。根据评估结果,提出以下建议:①加强水资源、能源、农业、土地等多部门协同,增加科技、水利、能源等方面投资力度,协调水-能源、水-粮食和能源-粮食关系,提高水资源、能源和粮食系统之间转化效率。②引导自然资源从富集区域向匮乏区域流动,引导高端产业、先进技术和投资等社会资源从发达地区向自然资源富集区域转移,缓解资源匮乏区供需矛盾,提高资源附加值,促进区域协同发展。

Assessment of water-energy-food nexus fitness in China from the perspective of symbiosis

Water,energy and food are essential resources for human survival and development,and the interactions among them are called water-energy-food nexus.In China,the spatial and temporal distribution of above three resources are not matched,which affects the efficiency of resources conversion.In order to maintain the balance between supply and demand of resources,the resources management principles should be changed from‘single-resource’planning to‘multi-resources’synergy.Therefore,it is of great significance to evaluate the water-energy-food nexus fitness.In this study,the symbiosis theory was used to guide the establishment of the framework of water-energy-food symbiosis system.Then,the concept of water-energy-food system fitting was presented,and it was devised into three indexes:stability,coordination and sustainability.The Press-State-Impact-Response(PSIR)model was applied to construct the assessment index system of fitness.The fitness of water-energy-food in China from 2000 to 2016 were calculated based on the presented assessment index system and method.The results reveal that:first,the sub-index‘sustainability’had the largest weight and significantly impacted the fitness of water-energy-food nexus,the sub-index‘coordination’was the weakness of fitness improvement,and the sub-index‘stability’was the important basement of the fitting process.Second,the total fitness,coordination and sustainability of water-energy-food nexus in China increased from 2000 to 2016.Specifically,all the three indexes grew fast at first,then slowly.Meanwhile,the total stability was found to fluctuate slightly during the same period.Third,the spatial and temporal differentiation of regional water-energy-food nexus fitness in China were obvious.In specific,the fitness level in northeast and eastern China were relatively high while the fitness number in the central and western China were relatively low.Finally,based on the above findings,the following policy suggestions were provided:First,the government should increase investments in research and development of science and technology,water conservancy projects,energy construction projects,etc.,and enhance the multi-sector cooperation between water,energy,agriculture and land sectors in order to improve the efficiency of the transformation of water,energy and food systems.Second,government should encourage the flow of natural resources from resource-rich regions to resource-poor regions.Meanwhile,the technology,investments,industries and other social resources should be transferred from developed regions to the developing regions,which could alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of resources and promote regional coordinated development in China.