碳排放权交易体系政策效果的评估方法

对碳排放权交易体系(ETS)的政策效果进行及时和科学的评估,有助于政策制定者改善体系设计,从而确保ETS政策目标的实现。目前有大量的实证研究评估了国内外ETS的政策效果,但是几乎没有文章对这些研究所采用的方法进行系统的总结和分析。本文通过梳理针对ETS的碳减排效果、对低碳技术创新的影响、对经济产出和竞争力的影响、对企业经营管理的影响以及对协同减少大气污染物的影响等五个方面的实证研究,系统总结分析了这些研究所采用的方法。目前,相关研究所采用的定量分析方法包括双重差分法、匹配倍差法、三重差分法等,定性研究的方法包括问卷调研、访谈、案例分析等。本文对这些方法进行总结和对比分析,指出其优势、不足以及存在的挑战,最后指出了对我国试点ETS的政策效果进行评估所面临的困难,包括数据难以获取、评估方法的应用需要改进、事后评估研究的体量不足等,进而对ETS的主管部门、企业和研究者等各方提出了相关的建议,为更好地评估试点ETS和即将正式运行的全国ETS提供借鉴。

The methods of evaluating the impact of carbon emissions trading systems

Timely and scientific evaluations on the impact of carbon emissions trading systems(ETSs)will help policymakers to improve the scheme design and thereby ensure the realization of ETS policy objectives.Currently,although there are a large number of empirical studies that have evaluated the impact of ETSs at home and abroad,few articles have summarized and analyzed the methods adopted by these studies.This paper systematically reviews and summarizes the methods adopted in the existing empirical studies on the impact of ETS on carbon emission reduction,low-carbon technology innovation,economic outputs and competitiveness,business operation and management and collaboratively reducing air pollutants.At present,the quantitative analysis methods used in related studies include the difference-in-difference(DID)method,a combination of matching technique and the DID method,the difference-in-difference-in-difference(DDD)method,etc.,and qualitative research methods include questionnaire survey,interview,case study,etc.This article analyzes and contrasts these methods,and clarifies their advantages,disadvantages,and challenges in application.In the end,this paper points out the difficulties when evaluating the impact of the pilot ETSs in China,including the difficulty in obtaining the data needed,the need to improve the application of methods,and the inadequacy of ex post evaluation studies,etc.,and then puts forward relevant suggestions on the competent authorities of ETSs,enterprises and researchers,so as to provide references to better evaluate China’s pilot ETSs in operation and the national ETS forthcoming.