1993-2003年特大火灾发生规律、特征及原因分析

火灾作为一种灾害现象,其发生与发展具有随机性和确定性的双重特性.火灾统计分析是研究火灾随机性规律的一种有效方法,它通过总结、整理和分析大量的原始火灾资料,归纳出火灾发生的统计性规律.本文从1993-2003年我国火灾形势着手,联系火灾形势发展过程中的火灾起数、火灾中人员伤亡和直接财产损失等大量数据,重点分析了特大火灾的原因及类别特征,总结了特大火灾发生发展的规律和趋势,为正确认识和预测我国火灾形势、做好特大火灾的预防工作提供了参考.

Analysis of causes and characteristics of conflagrations from 1993 to 2003 in China

This paper aims to present the authors' statistics and analyses of the fire accidents that have happened in China during the 11 years from 1993 to 2003. Beginning with the analysis of the situation of the fire disasters, especially the features of the fire disasters in the cities and towns, and the causes leading to these accidents, the author has summed up the distributions of such accidents, the regularities and tendencies of the conflagrations in the cities and towns, in regard to the large amounts of data about the causes,the casualties and the direct property losses in the developing circumstances of the fires in the past decade. The analysis also involves the distributions in different seasons, regions and spaces, finding that the electrical faults still account for the chief reason. The results of our analysis help to decide that the risk management is also of primary importance. Meanwhile, fire statistics also supplies us with the future research orientation as well as that of the application of fire-prevention science. Thus, the research mentioned above contributes greatly to our correct understanding and predicting of the tendency of fire disasters, as well as taking the preventive measures against such disasters.