基于神经网络的民航安全态势评估模型及仿真

民航安全态势评估可以向管理者提供民航安全态势和未来态势变化的信息,帮助管理者作出科学的决策,是预防事故发生的关键。航空器事故征候、事故征候率和灾变的科学预测评估是民航安全态势评估的核心内容,分析选取影响民航安全态势的安全运行因素,尝试建立了民航安全态势评估模型,结合BP神经网络和Elman神经网络进行民航安全态势评估。2008-2010年民航安全态势评估结果如下：民航安全态势整体良好但事故征候较多,其中2009年的民航安全态势相对严峻,需要密切注意民用航空器事故的发生,同时应对2010年民用航空器事故进行高度关注,希望管理者采取积极措施进行事故预防。结果表明,基于神经网络建立的民航安全态势评估模型是可行的,可以作为我国民航安全态势评估的有效工具。

Situation assessment model of civil aviation safety based on neural network and its simulation

The prediction and assessment of aviation incidents,incident and catastrophe rates are the key of aviation safety situation assessment,provided for managers with aviation safety situation and future trend of change in information to make scientific decisions,which are very important to prevent accidents.The civil aviation safety situation assessment model is established from analysis and selection the factors that affect the situation of civil aviation safety.There are two neural network models which are BP and Elman types applied.Based on aviation safety situation assessment results between 2008 and 2010,the overall security situation is secure,but the civil aircraft incident are not few.In 2009,civil aviation safety situation is relatively severe so as to pay close attention to civil aircraft accidents in 2010 and hope managers to take active measures to prevent accidents.The results show that the model based on neural network for aviation safety situation assessment is feasible which is an effective tool for aviation safety situation assessment.