基于图形熵的化工应急响应预案复杂度评价

面对突发化工事故,应急处理是控制事故后果、减少损失的有效措施,应急响应预案是应急处理的依据和指南。应急处理中人与系统的交互作用对于事故的缓解或恶化起着至关重要的作用,目前在应急人因失误的研究中纷纷强调操作员操作经验的重要性,而忽略了由于预案逻辑结构过于复杂、可读性太差导致操作员因不能完全理解预案而造成的操作失误,因此讨论了预案复杂度的评价方法。基于图形熵的概念,将文本预案转化为相应的图形,通过计算图形的一、二阶熵确定步骤的5个复杂度因子,进而通过合并步骤复杂度计算任务复杂度。最后,以化工＂切换备用泵＂的应急操作实例对计算方法进行了验证和说明,并针对计算结果给出了减小复杂度的具体措施。实践证明,该方法是有效的。

The complexity evaluation of chemical emergency response plans based on Graphical Entropy

In the face of unexpected chemical accidents,emergency treatment is an effective measure to control the consequence and reduce the loss of accident.Emergency response plans are the basis and guideline for emergency treatment.The interaction between operator and system plays a vital role in alleviating or deteriorating the result of accident,however,the actual research about the human error in emergency response often stresses the importance of operators＇ experience and ignores the human error resulted from not fully understanding the plans because of the complex logical structure and bad readability of plans.Therefore,the evaluation method of plans complexity based on Graphic Entropy is discussed,by transforming the text plans into corresponding graphics and calculating the first and second order entropy of these graphics to determine five complexity factor of step,then calculating the complexity of task through complexity of step.At last,take the example chemical emergency operation of switching the back-pump for illuminating the calculation method,meanwhile,give the concrete measures to reduce the complexity.The results show that the evaluation method is effective.