Integrated model projections of climate change impacts on a North American lake |
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Authors: | Mehmet Ümit Taner James N CarletonMarjorie Wellman |
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Institution: | a United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), Office of Water, Washington, DC, United States b Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Oak Ridge, TN, United States c Bogazici University, Institute of Environmental Sciences, 80815 Bebek, Istanbul, Turkey |
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Abstract: | Climate change is likely to impact terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems via numerous physical and biological mechanisms. This study outlines a framework for projecting potential impacts of climate change on lakes using linked environmental models. Impacts of climate drivers on catchment hydrology and thermal balance in Onondaga Lake (New York State) are simulated using mechanistic models HSPF and UFILS4. Outputs from these models are fed into a lake ecosystem model, developed in AQUATOX. Watershed simulations project increases in the magnitude of peak flows and consequent increases in catchment nutrient export as the magnitude of extreme precipitation events increases. This occurs concurrently with a decrease in annual stream discharge as a result of increased evapotranspiration. Simulated lake water temperatures increase by as much as 5 °C during the 2040-2069 time period, accompanied by a prolonging of the duration of summer stratification. Projected changes include shifts in the timing of nutrient cycling between lake sediments and water column. Plankton taxa projected to thrive under climate change include green algae and Bosmina longirostris. Responses for species at higher trophic levels are mixed. Benthic macroinvertebrates may either prosper (zebra mussels) or decline (chironomids), while fish (e.g., gizzard shad) exhibit high seasonal variability without any clear trend. |
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Keywords: | Climate change Hydrology Ecosystem modeling Lakes Thermal stratification Eutrophication Algae |
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