Assessing the effects of disease and bleaching on Florida Keys corals by fitting population models to data

Coral diseases have increased in frequency over the past few decades and have important influences on the structure and composition of coral reef communities. However, there is limited information on the etiologies of many coral diseases, and pathways through which coral diseases are acquired and transmitted are still in question. Furthermore, it is difficult to assess the impacts of disease on coral populations because outbreaks often co-occur with temperature-induced bleaching and anthropogenic stressors. We developed spatially explicit population models of coral disease and bleaching dynamics to quantify the impact of six common diseases on Florida Keys corals, including aspergillosis, dark spots, white band, white plague, white patch, and Caribbean yellow band. Models were fit to an 8-year data set of coral abundance, disease prevalence, and bleaching prevalence. Model selection was used to assess alternative pathways for disease transmission, and the influence of environmental stressors, including sea temperature and human population density, on disease prevalence and coral mortality. Classic disease transmission from contagious to susceptible colonies provided the best-fit model only for aspergillosis. For other diseases, external disease forcing, such as through a vector or directly from pathogens in the environment, provided the best fit to observed data. Estimates of disease reproductive ratio values (R₀) were less than one for each disease, indicating coral colonies were below densities required for diseases to become established through contagious spread alone. Incidences of white band and white patch disease were associated with greater susceptibility or slower recovery of bleached colonies, and no disease outbreaks were associated with periods of elevated sea temperatures alone. Projections of best-fit models indicated that, atleast during the period of this study, disease and bleaching did not have substantial impacts on populations and impaired rates of population growth appeared to be attributable to other stressors. By applying epidemiological models to field data, our study gives qualitative insights into the dynamics of coral diseases, relative stressor impacts, and directions for future research.