Integrated urban ecosystem evaluation and modeling based on embodied cosmic exergy

This paper presented a thermodynamic synthesis that involved resource accounting, evaluation and modeling of urban ecosystems based on embodied cosmic exergy (EcE), which redefined embodied exergy with the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR) as the reference for solar exergy. In a case study of the Beijing urban ecosystem, the major resources supporting the urban ecosystem, both from free natural resources and from the economy, were accounted for, analyzed and evaluated in the same units, Cosmic Joules (Jc). These indicators revealed the current performance of the Beijing urban ecosystem by considering five aspects of the system: EcE sources, EcE intensity, EcE welfare, environmental impacts and economic efficiency. Moreover, through the combination of the EcE synthesis with a systems dynamics, this research constructed an embodied cosmic exergy-based urban system model (EESM) using Beijing as an example of urban development. The results show that the 10 years from 2010 to 2020 will be very critical for the sustainable development of Beijing because many key factors, such as water resources, wastes and urban assets, might be confronted with great changes during this period. These changes will inevitably transform the urban system not only in its external circumstances but also in its inner structure and may lead to serious consequences. Of all the necessary resources, the most sensitive factor is water supply.