Future land-use change scenarios for the Black Sea catchment |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Applied Physics, University of Cadiz, Puerto Real Campus, 11510, Spain;2. Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), 1700-066 Lisbon, Portugal;1. Consultant to CSIRO, P.O. Box 14, Lauderdale, Tasmania 7020, Australia;2. Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, School of Agricultural Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7005, Australia;3. CSIRO Land and Water, Private Bag 12, Hobart 7000, Australia;4. School of Chemical Engineering, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia;5. Integrated Packaging, 83–85 Banbury Road, Reservoir, Victoria 3073, Australia;6. CSIRO Agriculture, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, 2601, Australia |
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Abstract: | Plausible future scenarios have been created for the Black Sea catchment, focussing on spatially explicit alternatives for land-use changes. Four qualitative storylines (HOT, ALONE, COOP and COOL) were first developed, based on interpretation of the respective global scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2) produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Quantitative statistical downscaling techniques were then used to disaggregate the outputs of global scenarios at a regional level. The resulting land-use maps were spatially allocated at 1 km resolution in the Metronamica model, using a set of factors related to the identified drivers of change. The land-use change model was calibrated on historical trends of land-cover change (MODIS 2001 and 2008) translated into spatial allocation rules, and future land-use projections (IMAGE, 2001) were adopted. Suitability and constraint maps and population trends were used to regulate the modelling process. The calibrated model was validated by statistical procedures, visual evaluation and stakeholder involvement in order to ensure its plausibility and accuracy. This methodology bridged the gap between the global and regional scales. Four simulated future states were produced for the main land-use classes–forest, grassland, cropland and built-up areas, as well as scrublands, crops/natural vegetation and barren land–for 2025 and 2050. The results suggest that the features highlighted in these scenarios are guided by global trends, such as population rise and decreasing agriculture, but with different growth rates and a variety of spatial patterns, with regional variations resulting from local backgrounds and policy objectives. This study aims to provide future land-use data as a potential geographical tool to assist policy makers in addressing environmental emergencies such as water stress and pollution. In particular, the exploration of plausible futures can support future assessments to comply with the EU Water Framework Directive and Integrated Coastal Zone Management policies around the Black Sea. |
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Keywords: | Downscaling IPCC land-use Change Metronamica Scenario development |
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